313 - Determining Predictive Factors of Successful Maxillary Permanent Second Molar Substitution

Purpose: The aim of this 16-year retrospective chart review was to assess whether there are any predictive characteristics in determining the likelihood that the maxillary permanent second molar (PSM) will successfully erupt into the position of an extracted maxillary permanent first molar (PFM) in patients who had at least one maxillary PFM extracted between the ages of 5 to 13 years old due to infection, caries, or developmental anomalies.

Methods: Dental records and radiographs were analyzed of children, ages 5 to 13, who had at least one maxillary PFM extraction completed at St. Barnabas Hospital and Union Community Health Clinics between the years of 2005 to 2021. Panoramic radiographs within 6 months prior to extraction were analyzed and compared to post-extraction radiographs to monitor the angulation and eruption of the PSM to evaluate space closure. Third molar presence in the quadrant of extraction, age, and gender were also recorded.

Results: Of the 36 qualifying maxillary PFMs, 64% achieved spontaneous space closure. Age (mean: 11.31 years), gender (36% female, 64% male), angulation of the adjacent PSM and second premolar, and third molar absence or present were not statistically significant factors in determining space closure in the maxillary arch. Developmental stage of the PSM at time of extraction was statistically significant (P <.05).

Conclusions: These findings demonstrate that in the population analyzed, only developmental stage of the PSM was statistically significant in determining success of spontaneous closure. Further studies with a larger sample size and more thorough follow-up should be conducted.